Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
